Watching before acting is as important as listening before speaking. ― Irl M. Davis




GLOBAL





WTO DEALS U.S. A BLOW IN CANADIAN PAPER CASE: In other WTO news, the global trading body largely sided with Canada on Thursday in a dispute settlement ruling involving U.S. duties on imports of Canadian supercalendered paper, or the glossy kind used in newspaper inserts and magazines. A dispute settlement panel found that U.S. countervailing duties ran afoul of WTO rules.
In the ruling, the global trading body also took issue with another aspect of U.S. trade remedy law, saying the Commerce Department's "ongoing conduct" of applying "adverse facts available" to calculate duties — a practice that often leads to higher tariffs when the department finds companies aren't fully cooperating with an investigation — is also inconsistent with WTO statute.
The dispute settlement panel also rejected or declined to rule on some aspects of Canada's case, but it otherwise largely sided with Ottawa, wrapping up a case that was first launched in March 2016.

Coming up next: Both sides now have up to 60 days to decide whether to appeal the findings. [POLITICO's Morning Trade, July 6, 2018]
















NORTH AMERICAN AUTO GROUPS PRESS FOR MORE NAFTA TALKS: North American automotive groups on Monday urged U.S., Canadian and Mexican negotiators to wrap up talks to renegotiate NAFTA, now that Mexico has elected a new president.
"As a new government forms in Mexico on Dec. 1, 2018, we believe now is the time for all parties to return to the negotiating table with a renewed commitment to the modernization of a cohesive three-country NAFTA agreement," the groups said. "We have a great opportunity to update this trade agreement and it is in the best interest of all three countries to refocus on establishing a new NAFTA agreement that will allow the North American auto industry to remain globally competitive."
The statement was signed by auto groups from the three countries that represent U.S., Asian and European brand manufacturers that build cars in the region. Doug has more. [Morning Trade, July 10, 2018]

MEXICO ASYLUM TALKS HEAT UP: The Trump administration continues to discuss a possible "safe third country" asylum deal with Mexico, Joshua Partlow and Nick Miroff write in the Washington Post. Under such an agreement, asylum seekers who pass through Mexico en route to the U.S. would be required to first seek refuge in that country — largely fixing the administration's quandary over how to stop the flow of Central American children and families to the border.
"The possible accord is likely to be discussed this week at high-level meetings in Latin America," the Post reports. "[Nielsen] was scheduled to meet Tuesday and Wednesday with foreign ministers from Central America and Mexico in Guatemala City. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is due to visit Mexico City on Friday." POLITICO reported in mid-May that U.S. and Mexican officials were discussing an asylum deal, but talks cooled in the runup to Mexico's July 1 presidential election.

The election ended with a victory for Andrés Manuel López Obrador, a leftist and vocal Trump opponent, which would seemingly make a safe-third country pact less likely. "But DHS officials believe they have a window to secure a deal in the lame-duck phase of [President Enrique Peña Nieto's] administration, which ends on Dec. 1," write Partlow and Miroff. "Some on the Mexican side see such an accord as a possible valuable chit in broader negotiations over tariffs and the future of North American free trade." More here. [POLITICO's Morning Shift, July 11, 2018]



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GREAT BRITAIN







DD RESIGNS: The U.K.’s Brexit Secretary David Davis resigned shortly before midnight on Sunday, with a withering assessment of Theresa May’s new plan for Brexit. Steve Baker, the U.K.’s minister in charge of a no-deal Brexit scenario, and Suella Braverman, another Brexit minister, have reportedly followed him out the door. “It leaves a gaping hole at the top of the department set up by May to plan and negotiate Britain’s EU exit, less than nine months from Brexit day,” our London colleague Jack Blanchard writes.
It doesn’t particularly matter to Brussels who’s leading the U.K.’s Brexit charge as long as Theresa May stays put as prime minister. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, told leaders at their late June summit that he considers May’s EU adviser Olly Robbins to be his real counterpart in the discussions, people who witnessed Barnier’s gig told Playbook. Still, these latest resignations complicate things for the U.K. — and more concretely for its “strong and stable” government, which has had to deal with a resignation every six weeks or so.

It’s a major challenge for May, who’s facing her biggest crisis since the general election. Could other Brexiteer ministers follow suit and attempt to bring her down? Could the resignations, in fact, strengthen May’s position? Will they — and let’s not forget there are divergent interests on the EU side of things too — highlight the need to prepare for a no-deal Brexit? These are just a few of the many questions swirling around today and over the next few days. For those of you hungry for the immediate lowdown on the British fallout, keep an eye out for Jack’s London Playbook, hitting inboxes by 8 a.m. Brussels time. [POLITICO Brussels Playbook, July 9, 2018]



EU BREXIT CHIEF TO MEET WITH TRUMP TEAM AMID U.K. CHAOS: With the United Kingdom in crisis over its exit negotiations with the European Union, the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, has a busy U.S. visit planned for this week. He starts today in New York, where he is participating in events hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations and the European American Chamber of Commerce.
Barnier will meet with senior U.S. officials on Wednesday, including U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He will discuss the future of Brexit negotiations at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on Thursday.
The U.S. visit comes as British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a possible "no confidence" vote that could force her out of office. The U.K.'s chief Brexit negotiator, David Davis, resigned over the weekend to protest May's revised Brexit plan, which was approved on Friday by May's cabinet. By Sunday night, Davis decided to leave, accusing the prime minister of leaving the U.K. at the mercy of further demands for concessions from the EU and breaking key negotiating pledges. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson resigned Monday.
May on Monday appointed Dominic Raab, a Conservative Party politician from southern England, to replace Davis. The BBCdescribed Raab as a "staunch Brexiteer" who formerly worked for Davis as a lawyer in the Foreign Office before going into politics in 2006. May also moved Jeremy Hunt, who was formerly the health secretary, into the foreign secretary slot. [POLITICO's Morning Trade, July 10, 2018]

U.K. SCIENTISTS TO MAY: CHALLENGE TRUMP ON CLIMATE: Ahead of Trump's trip to the United Kingdom this week, 135 of its climate scientists wrote to Prime Minister Theresa May urging her to challenge the president on climate change. "As the United States is the world's second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, President Trump's policy of inaction on climate change is putting at risk the U.K.'s national security and its interests overseas," they wrote in the letter. [POLITICO's Morning Energy, July 10, 2018]



The U. S. Embassy in the United Kingdom released a warning on Tuesday in anticipation of President Trump’s visit to London, asking Americans to “keep a low profile” while the president remains overseas. “Numerous demonstrations are being planned for July 12 to 14, 2018, surrounding the visit of the President of the United States to the United Kingdom,” the statement said. “The majority of the demonstrations will be focused in central London on July 13, with other events planned for July 12 and 14. Several of the events are expected to attract large crowds and there will be road closures in connection with those events.” The warning tells Americans to be aware of surroundings, exercise caution “if unexpectedly in the vicinity of large gatherings that may become violent,” and to monitor local media for updates. [The Daily Beast: PM Cheat Sheet, July 10, 2018]



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