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I love Donald Trump. He's a great man. But really the one thing, the one thing I just can't understand is... Well, he's just got to stop talking about this f---ing wall. People tell me "Donald Trump is awesome but I don't understand the wall." -- Bobby Knight paraphrased




MEDICINE





Challenging times for Alzheimer's trials

Clinical trials for Alzheimer's drugs are having a hard time recruiting participants — yet another setback for a field of research that's already enormously difficult.
Where it stands: There are more than 200 trials in search of roughly 100,000 participants, Medscape reports, citing federal officials. The New York Times cites experts who put the shortfall closer to 25,000, but that's still a daunting gap to close.
  • Researchers would need to start by contacting more than 37 million patients in the right age range to participate in a trial, the NYT reports.
  • About 10% of those people would make it on to a clinical trial site for screening. Statistically, about 20% of those people would drop out, and then 80% of those who remain would fail the screening. That leaves 25,000 patients.
Recruitment is especially difficult for Alzheimer's trials because it can be hard to reach people who have the disease, especially in its early stages, and also because Alzheimer's is often misdiagnosed.

“The irony is that the science has never been more promising,” John Dwyer, president of the Global Alzheimer’s Platform Foundation, told the Times. “How many promising drugs will be abandoned or their evaluation seriously delayed? Some good science is going to be left on cutting-room floor.” [Axios Vitals, July 25, 2018]



IMMIGRATION





JUSTICE SYSTEM





HIDDEN IN THE ATTIC





For many, the name Gettysburg conjures up images of the Civil War's greatest battle — a titanic contest in which long lines of infantry marched over farm fields, across roads, and up hills that have since taken on legendary status. What many forget, however, is that the long road to Gettysburg began in the rolling pastures of Virginia, in a series of cavalry battles and skirmishes at places like Brandy Station, Aldie, Middleburg, and Upperville. On these battlefields, Union horsemen showed unusual pluck and at last proved themselves equal to their Confederate counterparts.
As his army marched toward Pennsylvania, Confederate General Robert E. Lee hoped General Jeb Stuart's cavalry would conceal his movements from the prying eyes of Union scouts. Yankee cavalry desperately needed to pierce Stuart's screen to discover Lee's whereabouts and, if possible, divine his intentions. On June 21, 1863, Union General David McM. Gregg took a stab at two of Stuart's Confederate brigades along the banks of Goose Creek, near Upperville, Virginia.

At first, Stuart's men were successful, making a determined stand near an old stone bridge over Goose Creek. Gregg, however, called for support and was soon reinforced by Colonel Strong Vincent's infantry brigade — which, just two weeks later, would earn fame on Little Round Top. Gregg's troopers and a portion of Vincent's men stormed the bridge, keeping the Rebels' attention, while more of Vincent's men forded the creek — and captured an artillery piece while setting the remainder of the Rebels to flight. The Yankees, however, were no closer to discovering Lee's intentions or the movement toward Gettysburg. [Civil War Trust, August 14, 2017]














What’s at Stake in November’s Elections: Tax Cuts, a Shutdown and Obamacare Repeal

A lot can change over the next three months, but right now Democrats look likely to win control of the House of Representatives. They currently hold the lead in both generic ballot polls and the prediction market for control of the House, but Republicans have the edge in the Senate, pointing to a divided government after November 6.
If Democrats win the House, legislative gridlock is the most likely outcome, says Andrew Hunter of Capital Economics.
Gridlock raises the odds of a government shutdown, Hunter writes, with funding for President Trump’s border wall and the need to raise the debt ceiling in March serving as potential flash points. Democrat-led investigations into Trump and his inner circle could compound the overall dysfunction, ensuring that very little gets done as far as legislation is concerned.
If Republicans keep control of both the House and the Senate, Hunter doubts that they can pass a second round of tax cuts, given the trillion-dollar annual deficits projected to start in 2020, driven in large part by the first set of cuts. Instead, Hunter expects a Republican-controlled Congress to turn to cutting federal spending, though without 60 seats in the Senate, those efforts may not amount to much.
Bloomberg’s Jonathan Bernstein is skeptical about any efforts to cut spending, writing instead that it’s “likely that spending will increase, with the logical (or at least politically feasible) compromise between increased spending on Republican priorities and Democratic priorities always being: both.” Bernstein notes that this scenario has significant fiscal implications: “Yes, that means the most likely policy outcome of continued Republican government would be extremely large federal budget deficits.”
Obamacare is another likely target if Republicans hold the House, but Bernstein believes that repeal is unlikely. His logic is simple: Republicans couldn’t repeal the Affordable Care Act in the current Congress despite controlling all branches of government, so there’s no reason to think they can do so in the next one. Republicans have demonstrated that they don’t have a viable replacement plan, Bernstein says, and they may have concluded that attacking Obamacare is more valuable politically to them than actually voting to end it.

But New York’s Jonathan Chait thinks that Republicans might just give Obamacare repeal one more try if they remain in control of Congress. President Trump is still complaining about the Senate’s failure on a repeal vote last year, and a GOP victory in November could produce a House filled with more Trump loyalists, not less, as moderate Republicans in swing districts lose their seats to Democrats. Add that to the growing sense in the administration that Trump is immune from criticism from his base, no matter how harmful his actions may be to his supporters, and you have a recipe for another repeal attempt. “If Republicans can withstand the president calling Nazis ‘good people,’” Chait acidly writes, “why not take another crack at health care?” [The Fiscal Times, August 7, 2018]







REG WATCH ALERT: The Office of Management and Budget approved the administration's "borrower defense" proposal late last week. That's a signal that the public could get a peek at the Education Department's new proposed rule governing federal loan forgiveness for defrauded students in the days ahead. Stay tuned. [POLITICO's Morning Education, July 23, 2018]



CYBERSECURITY





VOICE OF THE STATES — President Donald Trump is making the job of state officials rushing to secure their election systems significantly harder, the president of the National Association of Secretaries of State said during an appearance this weekend on C-SPAN's Newsmakers, where he was co-interviewed by our very own Eric. "The president and the administration [have] to take a leadership role in this," said NASS President and Vermont Secretary of State Jim Condos. "Unfortunately, the person at the top has not been supportive and has sent mixed messages, and that makes it difficult on us as secretaries." Condos, who became NASS's new president on July 16, also urged Congress to create a regular election security grant program instead of doling out money in response to periodic crises.
Asked whether he wanted to see Congress and the states apply more scrutiny to the small community of voting technology vendors that produce the vast majority of America's election infrastructure, Condos said he supported "a little more regulation" but said he wasn't yet sure what form that should take. He had stronger words for lawmakers on another subject, though, calling it "unconscionable" that Congress hadn't boosted the Election Assistance Commission's budget now that federal and state officials were calling on it for a broader set of tasks.
Despite heading the group that represents most states' chief election officials, Condos avoided criticizing his fellow secretaries for controversial decisions like using paperless electronic voting machines. When Eric asked whether he thought states should prioritize moving to paper-based systems, Condos first cautioned that he would "be speaking not as a NASS president but as a Vermont secretary of state," before saying he considered paper systems "the correct way to go." "My personal belief," he added, "is that a best practice is to have some kind of paper trail."
... BUT DO STATES NEED TO USE THEIR VOICE MORE? — House Republicans last week voted down a proposal for another $380 million in election security funds, and the top cyber official at DHS thinks states need to help lawmakers understand what they want. Chris Krebs, the undersecretary of the National Protection and Programs Directorate, said states will need to be "much more precise" about how much money they need to guide Congress. "If a state needs money, they need to say what they need it for and how much they need," he said at a Washington Post conference late last week. Krebs also said that until special counsel Robert Mueller's indictment of 12 Russians for hacking during the 2016 election, he didn't know that Russia stole information on 500,000 U.S. voters; he knew from the previous intelligence assessment that 100,000 voters' information was stolen, and that Mueller's investigation uncovered the new figure.

More from Krebs: He said that in DHS's experience, the most common cybersecurity flaws in state election equipment were outdated operating systems, insufficient patch management and misconfiguration errors. And while he joked that his organization's name "sounds like a Soviet-era intelligence agency," it has real consequences, since the non-descript moniker actually hampered his ability to form relationships with state election officials at first. A bill renaming NPPD as the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (H.R. 3359) has languished in Congress, but Krebs said he doesn't know why, as he's not aware of anyone opposing it. [POLITICO's Morning Cybersecurity, July 23, 2018]



CLIMATE CHANGE

AUTO RULE ROLLBACK COULD HINGE ON HIGHWAY DEATHS: The Transportation Department and EPA are gearing up to release a proposal rolling back Obama-era rules requiring significant gains in car fuel efficiency as soon as this week — and the Trump administration appears ready to argue that less efficient cars are safer for human lives.
Newly posted OMB meeting records show for the first time that the EPA version is called the "Safer and Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule." (The rulemaking previously had a more generic name.) Former Administrator Scott Pruitt made it clear in April when he announced plans to roll back EPA's greenhouse gas standards that lowering the up-front costs of new vehicles was a major concern, in part because he said higher prices could motivate consumers to continue driving older, dirtier cars.
But the safety reference in the rule's name is a new and apparently key feature of the rollback. The debate over whether increases in fuel efficiency — which are often driven by downsizing and lightweighting — mean that those vehicles are less safe has been raging for about as long as fuel economy standards have existed. The forthcoming proposal is expected to analyze whether lowering the fuel efficiency targets means fewer traffic fatalities — potentially more than 1,000 of the nearly 40,000 annual highway deaths in the U.S., according to sources familiar with a draft that circulated earlier this year. It is not clear whether the proposal will factor in the costs related to increased air pollution associated with rolling back the standards, but the Trump administration has already been relying on much lower figures to estimate the cost effects of climate change in rolling back other Obama-era rules. Advocates of lower efficiency note that traffic deaths per capita and per miles driven have decreased significantly since fuel economy standards were first created by Congress in the 1970s.
OMB update: Newly posted records at OMB show the White House, DOT and EPA held at least four meetings on the vehicles rules in June with: the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, which has warned the Trump administration against freezing the standards; pollution control companies and trade groups that have called for more long-term certainty about vehicle rules and a single national standard; the National Association of Clean Air Agencies and Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management, which represent many areas struggling with air quality amid increasing car use; and Environment America. [POLITICO's Morning Energy, July 23, 2018]


CURBELO'S CARBON TAX FOOTPRINT: Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo is expected to unveil his carbon tax legislation today to address climate change. The bill will reportedly propose replacing the existing federal gasoline tax with a $23-per-ton carbon tax, and would adjust 2 percent above inflation annually. The proposal would direct 70 percent of revenues to the Highway Trust Fund, E&E News reported. [POLITICO's Morning Energy, July 23, 2018]

Climate change is finally getting political cred with Republicans

Climate change is starting to become a political worry for some Republicans.
The big picture: For years, Republicans could ignore the issue or outright question mainstream climate science without political worry. That’s starting to change. Some congressional Republicans are beginning to find it in their political interest to at least acknowledge climate change and oppose efforts to weaken existing policies.
Show less
The subtle but significant shift is fueled by disparate factors, including a stronger economy and President Trump’s dismissive policies on climate.
“Moderate Republicans running this cycle are going to look for places to distance themselves in some places and appeal somehow to the middle, and [climate] is a fairly safe issue to do so.”
— Adrian Gray, Republican pollster
Unlike the backlash Republicans face for disagreeing with Trump on many issues, Gray says his polling shows that most Republican voters don’t penalize their lawmakers for acknowledging climate change is real and a problem, even though Trump openly mocks it.
This distinction comes despite the fact polling shows climate change remains a low priority for most voters, said Gray, who has done work for environmental groups.
Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo embodies the moderate GOP mold considered key to Republicans keeping control of the House. He represents the tip of Florida, a swing district whose residents regularly experience rising sea levels, one of the clearest and most present impacts of climate change.
  • Climate change is a top priority for Curbelo, who has regularly criticized Trump on several issues.
  • He’s introducing legislation today that taxes carbon emissions, with at least one fellow Republican, Curbelo said.
  • He’s a co-founder of a bipartisan House caucus that acknowledges climate change.
The other side(s): Curbelo’s Democratic challenger, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, is accusing the congressman of being ineffective and disingenuous with his work addressing climate change. Meanwhile, Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative group influential with Republicans, is holding an event today highlighting its opposition to what it’s calling the “giant job-crushing carbon tax” bill Curbelo is introducing.
Those cross-pressures highlight the political danger Curbelo faces in the midterm elections. His district is a top target for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and voters there overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential contest.
The 38-year-old Curbelo, first elected to Congress in 2014, is unusually nonchalant about this criticism and the potential for it to ultimately boot him from Washington.
“I don’t worry about those kinds of things. I didn’t go to college to serve in Congress. I’m going to be as effective as possible while I’m here. The day I’m not here, I’ll be perfectly fine.”
— Curbelo
The bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus Curbelo helped found two years ago with fellow Florida Rep. Ted Deutch, a Democrat, faces accusations from some environmentalists that it’s mostly an empty effort giving political cover to Republicans. Its record does show its limits:
  • The caucus hasn’t put forth any substantive policies.
  • Most GOP members of the caucus supported a non-binding but symbolically important resolution last week opposing a carbon tax.
But the fact that some Republicans see a need to join an effort acknowledging climate change represents a political turning point, considering that the party as a whole has dismissed or denied outright mainstream climate science for most of the past decade. Of the 42 Republican members of the caucus, 35 have joined since Trump’s election.
Leading up to last week’s vote on the anti-carbon tax resolution, some Republicans felt “angst” about it, according to a senior GOP aide who spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid about inner party workings.
After the vote, the aide expressed surprise at the number of Republicans who opposed the resolution: six, including five who are running for reelection. While objectively small, it’s still a notable change from the unanimous GOP backing in a near identical vote two years ago.
Increasingly, Republicans are voting against opposing moves on climate policy — a political double negative. Last July, dozens of House Republicans voted to defeat an amendment that would have blocked a Defense Department study of climate change.
This political shift is by no means universal, and it isn't leading to broad support for policies. It's one thing to acknowledge climate change is real, but it's another, big step to put forward policies, and so far Curbelo is an outlier.
GOP Reps. Steve Scalise of Louisiana and David McKinley of West Virginia sponsored last week’s anti-carbon tax resolution for compelling reasons: they represent fossil-fuel constituents who would get hit hardest by a tax on carbon emitted from oil, natural gas and coal.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat from West Virginia running for reelection this year, told me last week he would still support today an advertisement he ran in 2010 shooting climate-change legislation with a gun.
One former congressional Republican who got voted out largely for his vote in support of that bill — Bob Inglis of South Carolina — says times are changing, albeit slowly.

“That was the darkest days of the recession, the reddest district in the reddest state in the nation," Inglis said. "So things are turning, but they haven’t turned completely yet.” [Axios, COLUMN / HARDER LINE, Amy Harder, Jul 23, 2018]



CANDIDATES











BUSINESS COUNCIL TO TRUMP: NOT TOO LATE TO CHANGE YOUR MIND: Erin Ennis, vice president of the U.S.-China Business Council, appealed to the Trump administration to back off its tariff action, which she said was unlikely to persuade China to change its behavior but could do "significant damage to U.S. economic interests, both in preventing necessary imports as well as through retaliatory tariffs."

"A holistic approach that considers the economic effects of U.S. actions is needed to effectively address China's explicit and implicit trade and investment barriers," Ennis said in the group's comments. "We urge a comprehensive and strategic approach that clearly articulates the goals we are trying to achieve, setting short, medium, and long-term negotiating objectives to address industry concerns and build much-needed confidence that China will follow through on its commitments." [Morning Trade, July 23, 2018]



JOHN BOLTON  
National Security Advisor   



After Bolton forced out Bossert, he downgraded the homeland security adviser to a deputy assistant to the president and eliminated the adviser's direct channel to Trump. "What I hope is that the portfolio that I had isn't neglected," Bossert said on the podcast. "If [the current homeland security] organizational structure doesn't work," he added, "it'll be a shame, because it'll be a failure to [Trump]. It wasn't his idea, and we owe him ... professional advice." During his tenure, Bossert said, he briefed Trump "extensively" on both cybersecurity generally and Russia's election cyberattacks specifically.

Bossert also criticized Trump for dismissing Russian election meddling while standing next to Vladimir Putin, saying it "seemed to be appeasing Putin far too much." And he said he was disappointed to hear Trump repeat the discredited claim that the FBI needed to directly examine the Democratic National Committee's server to attribute the hacking. "We had a president who seemingly didn't understand what we told him directly" about the forensics work, Bossert said. Even so, he spoke wistfully of his last meeting with Trump after Bolton's arrival: "I think it's safe to say that I was a bit sad to leave, and he was a bit sad to see me go, and he's got my support in spirit." [POLITICO's Morning Cybersecurity, July 26, 2018]











RUSSIAN AGENTS







BORDER WALL      




1 fun thing: The halftime speech that missed its mark

A Trump campaign tale that never made it into the papers...
Jason Miller was excited. The legendary college basketball coach Bobby Knight was visiting Trump Tower and the campaign's senior communications adviser thought it would be a great opportunity to get Knight in front of the beleaguered Trump team for one of the coach's inspirational halftime speeches.
Behind the scenes: About 30 Trump communications staff and volunteers were gathered in the war room. Cable news blared on eight TVs that never switched off. Miller came out of his office to give the team a rare "ra ra speech," a "let's go get 'em speech... let's fight hard today and here's what we're pushing," according to two sources who were in the room for the occasion.
  • "Jason says, 'We've got Coach Knight here, the legendary Coach Knight. Coach, why don't you say a few words to the team here'," one of the sources recalled.
"Sure, sure. Happy to, Jason," Knight replied, in the recollection of the source. "You know, I love Donald Trump. He's a great man. He's gonna be a great president. I'm confident that he's gonna win.
  • "But really the one thing, the one thing I just can't understand is... Well, he's just got to stop talking about this f---ing wall."
Knight kept going, attacking the centerpiece of the Trump campaign, as Miller stood by agog and staff tried to suppress their laughter.
"I go everywhere," Knight said, "all over the country. And people tell me 'Donald Trump is awesome but I don't understand the wall.'"
  • "I'm telling you," Knight continued, "people don't understand the wall and you've got to stop talking about the wall. Trump's gonna win. But you've got to stop talking about the wall."
  • "So go get 'em guys."

Miller appeared befuddled. "Jason was like, 'Uh, thanks for that coach. Alright everybody, let's get back to work,'" the source recalled. Then everybody returned to their desks for another day in an office that often resembled The Office. [Axios Sneak Peek, July 22, 2018]



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